Simple Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment

Conventional probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA) are complex and frequently lead to different results because of the interpretations and approximations used by different experts. Simple PSHA is based on deterministically defined peak ground accelerations (PGA) with additional definition of probabilities of their exceedences. This way there is no duality between deterministic and probabilistic approaches used. The use of the simple PSHA is demonstrated for Abu Dhabi and the results are compared with a conventional PSHA. One comparative case is not sufficient to decide about the correlation between the conventional and the simple method of PSHA. It is obvious, however, that the simple method is more transparent and easy to use then more complex conventional method of PSHA. The simple procedure can be used for response spectra and other ground motion parameters with defined attenuation relationships.

Milutin Srbulov